V\u011bdci objevili nov\u00fd klimatick\u00fd model zvan\u00fd Pacifick\u00e1 stolet\u00e1 oscilace (PCO), kter\u00fd zahrnuje stolet\u00fd cyklus zm\u011bn teplot oce\u00e1n\u016f a vzorc\u016f po\u010das\u00ed. Tento model se li\u0161\u00ed od zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho El Ni\u00f1a, kter\u00fd se vyskytuje v p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u011btilet\u00e9m cyklu.<\/p>\n\n
V\u00fdzkumn\u00edci vyu\u017eili po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00e9 simulace k vyhodnocen\u00ed klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f v Pacifiku v pr\u016fb\u011bhu stalet\u00ed. Zjistili, \u017ee p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b ka\u017ed\u00fdch sto let se teploty vody v ur\u010dit\u00fdch oblastech Pacifiku v\u00fdznamn\u011b zm\u011bn\u00ed. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b teploty stoupaj\u00ed u z\u00e1padn\u00edho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Severn\u00ed Ameriky a v\u00fdchodn\u011b od Indon\u00e9sie, zat\u00edmco klesaj\u00ed pobl\u00ed\u017e Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky, Japonska a Austr\u00e1lie. Tento model se pot\u00e9 obrac\u00ed b\u011bhem \u201enegativn\u00ed f\u00e1ze\u201c cyklu.<\/p>\n\n
Model PCO m\u00e1 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed. B\u011bhem \u201enegativn\u00ed f\u00e1ze\u201c m\u016f\u017ee teplej\u0161\u00ed voda ve v\u00fdchodn\u00edm Pacifiku spustit atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9 oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed a zm\u011bnit vzorce v\u011btru v cel\u00e9m Pacifiku. Naopak b\u011bhem \u201epozitivn\u00ed f\u00e1ze\u201c mohou b\u00fdt ovlivn\u011bny vzorce sr\u00e1\u017eek v tropech.<\/p>\n\n
I kdy\u017e se PCO li\u0161\u00ed od El Ni\u00f1a, m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt podobn\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky na vzorce po\u010das\u00ed. El Ni\u00f1o bylo spojeno se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdm po\u010dtem lesn\u00edch po\u017e\u00e1r\u016f v Asii, poklesem rybolovu v ji\u017en\u00edm Pacifiku a sn\u00ed\u017eenou zem\u011bd\u011blskou produktivitou ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech. PCO m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt tak\u00e9 dopady v t\u011bchto oblastech.<\/p>\n\n
K potvrzen\u00ed existence PCO pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00edci analyzovat data z kor\u00e1lov\u00fdch \u00fates\u016f a dal\u0161\u00edch oce\u00e1nsk\u00fdch sediment\u016f. Tyto sedimenty obsahuj\u00ed chemick\u00e9 podpisy minul\u00fdch teplot oce\u00e1n\u016f, kter\u00e9 poskytuj\u00ed z\u00e1znam zm\u011bn teploty v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu. Kor\u00e1lov\u00e9 \u00fatesy v tropick\u00fdch oblastech, kde se o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky PCO, jsou hojn\u00fdmi zdroji t\u011bchto \u00fadaj\u016f.<\/p>\n\n
Je zapot\u0159eb\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdzkumu k ov\u011b\u0159en\u00ed PCO a ur\u010den\u00ed jeho sou\u010dasn\u00e9 f\u00e1ze v cyklu. V\u011bdci doufaj\u00ed, \u017ee jejich zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed motivuj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00edky ke shroma\u017e\u010fov\u00e1n\u00ed a anal\u00fdze dat z kor\u00e1lov\u00fdch \u00fates\u016f, aby potvrdili existenci PCO. Pochopen\u00ed tohoto dlouhodob\u00e9ho klimatick\u00e9ho modelu m\u016f\u017ee pomoci v\u011bdc\u016fm l\u00e9pe p\u0159edpov\u00eddat a zm\u00edr\u0148ovat potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed dopady klimatick\u00e9 variability na r\u016fzn\u00e9 aspekty syst\u00e9m\u016f Zem\u011b.<\/p>\n\n
Tradi\u010dn\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 z\u00e1znamy se t\u00fdkaj\u00ed pouze p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 150 let, co\u017e omezuje na\u0161e ch\u00e1p\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159irozen\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 variability v del\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku. Objev PCO zd\u016fraz\u0148uje pot\u0159ebu dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdzkumu k odhalen\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f a jejich potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch d\u016fsledk\u016f pro budouc\u00ed zm\u011bnu klimatu.<\/p>\n\n
Po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00e9 simulace hraj\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed roli p\u0159i studiu klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f, kter\u00e9 se vyskytuj\u00ed po del\u0161\u00ed dobu. T\u00edm, \u017ee do t\u011bchto model\u016f za\u010dlen\u00ed dostupn\u00e1 data, mohou v\u011bdci simulovat klimatick\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed po stalet\u00ed a identifikovat modely, kter\u00e9 nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt patrn\u00e9 v kr\u00e1tkodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edch pozorov\u00e1n\u00edch.<\/p>\n\n
Pochopen\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f, jako je PCO, m\u016f\u017ee pomoci v\u011bdc\u016fm zlep\u0161it p\u0159edpov\u011bdi klimatu a vypracovat strategie p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00ed se potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm dopad\u016fm souvisej\u00edc\u00edm s klimatem. Zv\u00e1\u017een\u00edm mo\u017en\u00fdch \u00fa\u010dink\u016f PCO na vzorce po\u010das\u00ed a ekosyst\u00e9my mohou tv\u016frci politik a z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 strany u\u010dinit informovan\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed ke zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed rizik a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed odolnosti v\u016f\u010di budouc\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 variabilit\u011b.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nov\u00fd klimatick\u00fd model: PCO \u2013 dal\u0161\u00ed El Ni\u00f1o? Objev nov\u00e9ho klimatick\u00e9ho modelu V\u011bdci objevili nov\u00fd klimatick\u00fd model zvan\u00fd Pacifick\u00e1 stolet\u00e1 oscilace (PCO), kter\u00fd zahrnuje stolet\u00fd cyklus zm\u011bn teplot oce\u00e1n\u016f a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24594,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[284],"tags":[5266,3848,1302,5267,479,5268],"class_list":["post-2617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-science","tag-climate-patterns","tag-el-nino","tag-oceanography","tag-paleoclimatology","tag-pacific-ocean","tag-weather-forecasting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2617"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2617\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24595,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2617\/revisions\/24595"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}