{"id":18410,"date":"2022-10-14T02:54:54","date_gmt":"2022-10-14T02:54:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/?p=18410"},"modified":"2022-10-14T02:54:54","modified_gmt":"2022-10-14T02:54:54","slug":"the-elusive-quest-to-predict-earthquakes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/science\/earth-sciences\/the-elusive-quest-to-predict-earthquakes\/","title":{"rendered":"Nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t: nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t<\/h2>\n\n

Khoa h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5n v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c trong c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/h2>\n\n

Trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 nh\u1eefng b\u00ed \u1ea9n c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m x\u1ea3y ra ch\u00fang. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n g\u00e2y ra \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t, nh\u01b0ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady v\u1eabn c\u00f2n l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n.<\/p>\n\n

Khoa h\u1ecdc d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh<\/h2>\n\n

\u0110\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra khi c\u00e1c m\u1ea3ng ki\u1ebfn t\u1ea1o di chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng \u1ee9ng su\u1ea5t t\u00edch t\u1ee5. Tuy nhi\u00ean, d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba \u0111i\u1ec3m x\u1ea3y ra \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5n h\u1ecdc v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1c tr\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n\n

Nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi h\u1ee9a kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/h2>\n\n

Nhi\u1ec1u l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft v\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t, bao g\u1ed3m theo d\u00f5i c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e0n \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn radon v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadt. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebfu c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u1ec1n ch\u1ea5n \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n khi\u1ebfn ch\u00fang kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea9n \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n\n

T\u1eeb Aristotle \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5n h\u1ecdc hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i<\/h2>\n\n

Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t c\u00f3 t\u1eeb th\u1eddi c\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ea1i. Aristotle tin r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng \u0111\u00e1m m\u00e2y c\u00f3 h\u00ecnh th\u00f9 b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t. V\u00e0o th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19, Robert Mallet \u0111\u00e3 ti\u00ean phong trong ng\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5n h\u1ecdc hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c v\u1ee5 n\u1ed5 c\u00f3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u00f4ng nh\u1eadn ra t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 s\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t, nh\u01b0ng \u00f4ng c\u0169ng th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m x\u1ea3y ra ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n\n

Ki\u1ebfn t\u1ea1o m\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 l\u1eddi h\u1ee9a v\u1ec1 c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/h2>\n\n

Ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 ki\u1ebfn t\u1ea1o m\u1ea3ng trong th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20 \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ea5y l\u00ean hy v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t. L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra theo c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady. Nh\u1eefng tr\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u1edf California v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m ho\u1eb7c nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 sau khi ch\u00fang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n

Nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng<\/h2>\n\n

Vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ee9c. Sau tr\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t L\u2019Aquila \u1edf \u00dd, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb bu\u1ed9c t\u1ed9i ng\u1ed9 s\u00e1t. V\u1ee5 vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y n\u00eau b\u1eadt nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c v\u00e0 tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5n h\u1ecdc trong vi\u1ec7c truy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea1t nh\u1eefng nguy c\u01a1 \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n\n

T\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t<\/h2>\n\n

\u0447\u0438\u0442\u044b\u0432\u0430\u044f \u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0432 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u0437\u0435\u043c\u043b\u0435\u0442\u0440\u044f\u0441\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439, \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043f\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0438\u043c\u0435\u0435\u0442 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0433\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430 \u043a \u0437\u0435\u043c\u043b\u0435\u0442\u0440\u044f\u0441\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\u043c. \u042d\u0442\u043e \u0432\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0432 \u0441\u0435\u0431\u044f \u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e \u0443\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0439\u0447\u0438\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u043a \u0437\u0435\u043c\u043b\u0435\u0442\u0440\u044f\u0441\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\u043c \u0441\u043e\u043e\u0440\u0443\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439, \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0438\u0437\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044e \u0441\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0438\u0445 \u0437\u0434\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u0438 \u043e\u0431\u0443\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043c\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043c \u0431\u0435\u0437\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u0438 \u0437\u0435\u043c\u043b\u0435\u0442\u0440\u044f\u0441\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\u0445. \u0424\u043e\u043a\u0443\u0441\u0438\u0440\u0443\u044f\u0441\u044c \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0433\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0435, \u043c\u044b \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u043c \u0441\u043c\u044f\u0433\u0447\u0438\u0442\u044c \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0440\u0443\u0448\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0438\u044f \u0437\u0435\u043c\u043b\u0435\u0442\u0440\u044f\u0441\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u0438 \u0441\u043f\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0436\u0438\u0437\u043d\u0438.<\/p>\n\n

Nh\u1eefng ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 trong k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5n v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c c\u1ea3i t\u1ea1o<\/h2>\n\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c, nh\u01b0ng k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5n \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ec3 thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i t\u1ea1o c\u00e1c t\u00f2a nh\u00e0 nh\u1eb1m ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t. Nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m \u0111\u1ebf linh ho\u1ea1t cho c\u00e1c b\u1ee9c t\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 b\u1ed9 gi\u1ea3m x\u00f3c cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n\n

Nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai<\/h2>\n\n

Trong khi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t v\u1eabn \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5n h\u1ecdc th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c li\u00ean quan. H\u1ecd nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh s\u1ef1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5n. Ngo\u00e0i ra, s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c \u0111a ng\u00e0nh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u00f4ng l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c trong c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u00e0 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n\n

Ph\u1ea7n k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn<\/h2>\n\n

Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c khoa h\u1ecdc to l\u1edbn. Tuy nhi\u00ean, b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn s\u00e1ng t\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5n v\u00e0 \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00e2ng cao kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean n\u00e0y v\u00e0 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta kh\u1ecfi nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00e0n ph\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t Khoa h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5n v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c trong c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o Trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[728],"tags":[4270,4866,24068,97,99,1945],"class_list":["post-18410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earth-sciences","tag-seismology","tag-earthquakes","tag-earthquake-prediction","tag-science","tag-lifescienceart","tag-natural-disasters"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18410","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18410"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18410\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18411,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18410\/revisions\/18411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}