{"id":2617,"date":"2024-10-12T01:53:57","date_gmt":"2024-10-12T01:53:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/?p=2617"},"modified":"2024-10-12T01:53:57","modified_gmt":"2024-10-12T01:53:57","slug":"new-climate-pattern-pco-next-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/science\/climate-science\/new-climate-pattern-pco-next-el-nino\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u1eabu h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu m\u1edbi: OPC – El Ni\u00f1o ti\u1ebfp theo?"},"content":{"rendered":"

M\u1eabu h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu m\u1edbi: OPC – El Ni\u00f1o ti\u1ebfp theo?<\/h2>\n\n

Kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 ra m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu m\u1edbi<\/h2>\n\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra m\u1ed9t m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu m\u1edbi g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 Dao \u0111\u1ed9ng Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 (OPC), li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn chu k\u1ef3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u00e0ng th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 v\u1ec1 nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ki\u1ec3u th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i. M\u1eabu h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1edbi El Ni\u00f1o n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng, v\u1ed1n di\u1ec5n ra theo chu k\u1ef3 kho\u1ea3ng n\u0103m n\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n

B\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng t\u1eeb m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng m\u00e1y t\u00ednh<\/h2>\n\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng m\u00e1y t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu \u1edf Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7. H\u1ecd ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra r\u1eb1ng c\u1ee9 kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t tr\u0103m n\u0103m, nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 khu v\u1ef1c nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng l\u00ean ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i b\u1edd bi\u1ec3n ph\u00eda t\u00e2y B\u1eafc M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 ph\u00eda \u0111\u00f4ng Indonesia, trong khi gi\u1ea3m g\u1ea7n Nam M\u1ef9, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 \u00dac. Sau \u0111\u00f3, m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c trong “giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u00e2m” c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3.<\/p>\n\n

\u00dd ngh\u0129a \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/h2>\n\n

M\u1eabu h\u00ecnh OPC c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u00fd ngh\u0129a ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Trong “giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u00e2m”, n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1ea5m h\u01a1n \u1edf ph\u00eda \u0111\u00f4ng Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1ea5m l\u00ean c\u1ee7a kh\u00ed quy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00e1c ki\u1ec3u gi\u00f3 tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, trong “giai \u0111o\u1ea1n d\u01b0\u01a1ng”, c\u00e1c ki\u1ec3u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a \u1edf v\u00f9ng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n\n

So s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi El Ni\u00f1o<\/h2>\n\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 OPC kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi El Ni\u00f1o, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ki\u1ec3u th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft. El Ni\u00f1o c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c gia t\u0103ng c\u00e1c v\u1ee5 ch\u00e1y r\u1eebng \u1edf Ch\u00e2u \u00c1, suy gi\u1ea3m ngh\u1ec1 c\u00e1 \u1edf Nam Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u1edf Hoa K\u1ef3. OPC c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf nh\u1eefng khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n

B\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c<\/h2>\n\n

\u0110\u1ec3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a OPC, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00f3 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c r\u1ea1n san h\u00f4 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c tr\u1ea7m t\u00edch \u0111\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng kh\u00e1c. Nh\u1eefng tr\u1ea7m t\u00edch n\u00e0y ch\u1ee9a c\u00e1c d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u h\u00f3a h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, cung c\u1ea5p h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 theo th\u1eddi gian. C\u00e1c r\u1ea1n san h\u00f4 \u1edf c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1edbi, n\u01a1i d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a OPC s\u1ebd r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t nh\u1ea5t, l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o nh\u01b0 v\u1eady.<\/p>\n\n

Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u00e0 \u00fd ngh\u0129a<\/h2>\n\n

C\u1ea7n c\u00f3 th\u00eam nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c OPC v\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh giai \u0111o\u1ea1n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 trong chu k\u1ef3. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc hy v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd s\u1ebd th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kh\u00e1c thu th\u1eadp v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c r\u1ea1n san h\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a OPC. Vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ec1m t\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng Tr\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n\n

Hi\u1ec3u h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 kh\u00ed h\u1eadu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/h2>\n\n

C\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 kh\u00ed h\u1eadu truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng ch\u1ec9 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i kho\u1ea3ng 150 n\u0103m, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta v\u1ec1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u1edf c\u00e1c thang th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n. Vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra OPC nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh s\u1ef1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u00fd ngh\u0129a ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n\n

Vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u00e1y t\u00ednh trong nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kh\u00ed h\u1eadu<\/h2>\n\n

M\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng m\u00e1y t\u00ednh \u0111\u00f3ng m\u1ed9t vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng trong vi\u1ec7c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00e1c m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu x\u1ea3y ra trong c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01b0a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n v\u00e0o c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng h\u00e0nh vi kh\u00ed h\u1eadu qua nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 v\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean trong c\u00e1c quan s\u00e1t ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n\n

\u00dd ngh\u0129a \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u00e0 th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi kh\u00ed h\u1eadu<\/h2>\n\n

Hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 OPC c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 kh\u00ed h\u1eadu v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00edch \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u00ed h\u1eadu. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n c\u1ee7a OPC \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ki\u1ec3u th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft v\u00e0 h\u1ec7 sinh th\u00e1i, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 c\u00e1c b\u00ean li\u00ean quan c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u00e1ng su\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i tr\u01b0\u1edbc bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u1eabu h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu m\u1edbi: OPC – El Ni\u00f1o ti\u1ebfp theo? Kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 ra m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh kh\u00ed h\u1eadu m\u1edbi C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra m\u1ed9t m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24583,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[284],"tags":[5266,5267,3848,479,1302,5268],"class_list":["post-2617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-science","tag-climate-patterns","tag-paleoclimatology","tag-el-nino","tag-pacific-ocean","tag-oceanography","tag-weather-forecasting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2617"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2617\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24584,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2617\/revisions\/24584"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24583"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}