Trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, n\u0103m 1929 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1edb nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7y bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf kh\u1ee7ng khi\u1ebfp, \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u s\u1ef1 kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ea1i Suy Tho\u00e1i. Tuy nhi\u00ean, khi nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i qua l\u0103ng k\u00ednh h\u1eadu du\u1ec7, ch\u00fang ta kh\u00f4ng kh\u1ecfi t\u1ef1 h\u1ecfi: \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 di\u1ec5n ra kh\u00e1c?<\/p>\n\n
Nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1920 l\u00e0 th\u1eadp ni\u00ean c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3. Nh\u1eefng ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c radio, \u0111i\u1ec7n \u1ea3nh v\u00e0 \u00f4 t\u00f4 \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i c\u1ea3 qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3. Ph\u1ee5 n\u1eef gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n b\u1ea7u c\u1eed, v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n\n
Gi\u1eefa b\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng kh\u00ed l\u1ea1c quan n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 chi\u00eam tinh h\u1ecdc \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u00e1o b\u1ea1o cho n\u0103m 1929. Trong m\u1ed9t b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft \u0111\u0103ng tr\u00ean t\u1edd Ogden Standard-Examiner ng\u00e0y 30 th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 1928, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 chi\u00eam tinh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1ed9t n\u0103m ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c l\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 chi ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1edbi. H\u1ecd th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n
Nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebft, nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 chi\u00eam tinh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 sai h\u01a1n. V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 24 th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m 1929, bong b\u00f3ng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u1ee1, g\u00e2y ra m\u1ed9t chu\u1ed7i s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c lao d\u1ed1c, \u0111\u1ec9nh \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u00e0 Th\u1ee9 Ba \u0110en T\u1ed1i ng\u00e0y 28 th\u00e1ng 10 khi m\u1ea5t 11% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n\n
Cu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ea1i Suy Tho\u00e1i theo sau l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00f2n gi\u00e1ng n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i M\u1ef9. H\u00e0ng tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c, doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n, v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3i ngh\u00e8o lan r\u1ed9ng kh\u1eafp n\u01a1i.<\/p>\n\n
Nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n sai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 chi\u00eam tinh n\u0103m 1929 l\u00e0m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt sai l\u1ea7m khi d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o chi\u00eam tinh h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u00ean \u0111o\u00e1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Chi\u00eam tinh h\u1ecdc d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ni\u1ec1m tin r\u1eb1ng v\u1ecb tr\u00ed c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c thi\u00ean th\u1ec3 v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m sinh ra c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi hay m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ec7nh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Tuy nhi\u00ean, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng khoa h\u1ecdc n\u00e0o h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n
Vi\u1ec7c ti\u00ean tri, ngh\u1ec7 thu\u1eadt d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 pha tr\u1ed9n ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p gi\u1eefa khoa h\u1ecdc, ngh\u1ec7 thu\u1eadt v\u00e0 may r\u1ee7i. Trong khi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c, vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o chi\u00eam tinh h\u1ecdc hay c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p gi\u1ea3 khoa h\u1ecdc kh\u00e1c cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng l\u00e0 v\u00f4 \u00edch.<\/p>\n\n
V\u1edbi l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o s\u1ef1 l\u1ea1c quan c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1920 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u00f9 qu\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n s\u1ebd d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ea1i Suy Tho\u00e1i. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 lan r\u1ed9ng. Nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 chi\u00eam tinh \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 c\u1ea3m gi\u00e1c h\u01b0ng ph\u1ea5n hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh, thay v\u00ec cung c\u1ea5p b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 n\u00e0o v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n\n
Hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn ph\u00ea ph\u00e1n v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt v\u00e0 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh. Trong khi h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mang l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc qu\u00fd gi\u00e1, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i nh\u1edb r\u1eb1ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nh\u1eefng D\u1ef1 \u0110o\u00e1n C\u1ee7a C\u00e1c Nh\u00e0 Chi\u00eam Tinh Cho N\u0103m 1929: M\u1ed9t Sai L\u1ea7m V\u00e0 Hy V\u1ecdng Sai L\u1ec7ch Trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, n\u0103m 1929 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1edb nh\u01b0…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25206,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[1361,524,27,1362,1363],"class_list":["post-546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-history-of-science","tag-astrology","tag-great-depression","tag-history","tag-predictions","tag-science-and-pseudoscience"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=546"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25207,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/546\/revisions\/25207"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=546"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=546"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifescienceart.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=546"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}